New olive oil harvest 2025/2026

New-Harvest Briefing: 2025/2026 Olive Oil (early-update)

Note: we are still at the beginning of the 2025/26 harvest. National “aforo” estimates and IOC consolidated tables will be updated as the harvest progresses (Oct–Dec 2025). Treat the figures below as preliminary. 

How large is the 2025/2026 olive oil harvest expected to be?

Early official and industry estimates point to a moderate recovery overall for 2025/26, but with regional variation and important uncertainty because the campaign is only just beginning. The International Olive Council and early national reports indicate global production estimates in a broad early range (analysts have suggested figure bands from the high 3-to-4 million tonnes area down to lower ranges depending on which countries rebound or fall). The USDA is expecting around 3 million tonnes.

Greece (forecast)
Preliminary reporting and early sector tallies expect Greece’s 2025/26 olive-oil output to be around 250,000 tonnes, a notable improvement on some recent weak seasons but still subject to revision as harvest data and pressing volumes are reported. 

Other headline national notes (early / provisional)

• Spain: official AFORO tables and industry commentary point to a recovery which will be decisive for EU/global totals. 

• Italy: sector estimates point to a rebound (many analysts expect Italy may approach or exceed ~300k t if favourable conditions persist). 

• Tunisia & Turkey: big swing producers — some early reports indicate large variability (Tunisia in particular can materially change global balances). 

Bottom line: expect more precise national numbers in October–December 2025. For now the picture is cautiously optimistic for EU producers, with continued uncertainty for North Africa and weather risk.  

What are the largest olive oil producing countries historically?

Historically, production is dominated by Mediterranean countries; the consistent leaders are:

• Spain (by far the largest producer — typically ~35–45% of world output). 

• Italy (single-digit to low-teens % of world output in a normal year). 

• Greece (commonly in the top three, variable year-to-year). I

• Tunisia, Turkey, Portugal, Morocco — important swing contributors and major exporters in some years. 

These countries account for the bulk of world supply and therefore largely determine price swings and market availability. I

What are the drivers for olive oil production?

Production swings come from a mix of biological and environmental causes:

• Weather & water availability — rainfall and spring temperatures are the single biggest determinant of a crop’s size; recent droughts (2022–24) deeply reduced yields, while good spring rainfall can produce rebounds. 

• Alternate bearing — olives naturally cycle ‘on’ and ‘off’ years; this biological rhythm amplifies year-to-year volatility. 

• Pests & disease / agronomic practice — localised outbreaks or changes in irrigation and grove management (modern vs rain-fed systems) alter yields. 

• Timing & harvest choices — early-harvest decisions to prioritise polyphenols/quality can slightly affect campaign volumes of premium EVOO vs bulk oil.

• Because the 2025/26 campaign is only starting, these drivers remain the reason forecasts are still provisional — spring and pre-harvest weather and any late pests/disease will change final numbers. I

• What are the drivers for olive oil prices? 

Olive oil prices are set by an interaction of supply, demand, trade policy and financial factors:

• Supply levels — large crops in Spain, Turkey, Greece, Italy and Tunisia typically put downward pressure on prices; tight crops push prices up. 

• Global demand patterns — the U.S., EU (internal consumption and processing), Brazil, Japan and the UK are among the largest buyers; strong demand in those markets supports higher prices. For example, it can not be excluded that the high prices of olive oils during the 2023/2024 harvest may have long lasting effects on demand having potentially triggered a switch from olive oils to alternative oils in selected markets. 

• Inventories & carryover stocks — high carryover from a big campaign can mute price rises even if the new crop is smaller.

• Currency movements — oil traded in euros means USD/EUR swings affect prices for dollar-denominated buyers. 

• Trade policy / tariffs (including US tariffs) — recent reporting shows that U.S. tariff actions and threats have introduced real market uncertainty: exporters have scrambled to shift shipments and Greek producers in particular are seeking alternative buyers because potential U.S. tariffs would cut demand and change trade flows — a factor that can temporarily distort prices and export patterns.

• Tariff risk example: Reuters reported Greek producers actively seeking new markets after prospective U.S. tariffs, demonstrating how policy shocks can rapidly change trade routes and pricing. The uncertainty around US tariffs has led to abnormal import volumes with retailers looking to increase their inventory levels ahead of the tariff increases. At this stage, uncertainty continues to prevail in relation to the medium and long term tariff levels on European agricultural goods entering the US market.

What is the outlook for olive oil prices for the new 2025/2026 harvest?

Short answer: prices are likely to soften from the extremes seen in the drought years if EU producers (especially Spain) deliver the expected recovery — but volatility remains high.

Three plausible scenarios for 2025/26:

1. Baseline / Moderate-recovery: Spain and Greece rebound, Tunisia is average → prices ease moderately as supply catches up with demand. 

2. Weather-hit scenario: late drought/heat or pest issues in key regions → prices remain high or rise further. The largest swing factor in this case is likely to be the impact of the summer heat wave in Andalusia.

3. Trade-shock scenario (tariffs / policy): U.S. tariffs or other trade barriers are implemented → regional price dislocations (e.g., U.S. price rises, EU build-up of stocks) and exporters re-route shipments to alternative markets. During the year 2025, many olive oil producing countries have developed alternative markets to the US such as Asia and the Middle East. 

Timing: real clarity on prices will come as mill reports and first sales are recorded (October–December 2025) and as national aforos are finalised. Until then, trade will price in the risk of bumper crops vs the risk of weather shocks and tariff changes. 

Sources & further reading (key documents used for this update)

• International Olive Council — Olive Oil Sector Statistics / Market Notes (June–July 2025). International Olive Council

• Olive Oil Times — “Greece’s olive oil yield expected to reach 250,000 tonnes” (early 2025 reporting). Olive Oil Times

• Reuters — “Trump tariffs force Greek olive oil producers to seek new markets” (July 2025, on tariff impact). reuters.com

• CertifiedOrigins / trade press & analyst summaries on EU recovery and national aforo commentary. Certified Origins+1